election 2022

Here is the 2022 Mandate Calculator: guess and see the composition of the new Hungarian Parliament!

After the highly successful Mandate Calculator for 2018, Political Capital and Átlátszó have prepared one for this year’s elections. Based on the user’s tips, our mandate calculator produces a mandate estimate according to the current election rules. The calculator works as detailed below, although it cannot give perfect results – obviously no model will do that. However, the more realistic the guesses you enter, the more accurate the calculator’s estimates will be, and it is also a good tool for visualising and analysing elements of the electoral system.

It is worth trying, for example, giving 50-50% to the two major political forces and observing how much of the 106 individual districts are then allocated to one and how much to the other. Yes, that is the effect of the district map. In addition, the calculator is also perfectly suited to displaying the weight of beyond-the-borders votes. Enjoy your guessing. Warning, addictive!

Predicting the turnout

By moving the “Domestic participation” slider, you can set your guess for the Hungarian participation (the maximum value is the number of citizens with a Hungarian address in the register). You can also use the “Foreign participation” slider to guess the number of active voters not resident in Hungary (the maximum value is the number of citizens not resident in Hungary on the voters’ register of postal voters). Voters resident in Hungary who vote at a foreign representation are not distinguished by the calculator, they are simply put into the “domestic” category.

Predicting party support

The Calculator asks the user to guess the support of the four parties (alliances) in the country and abroad. This is done by moving the sliders next to the party list names. It is advisable to use the mouse, and the keyboard arrows can be used to move the values one percentage point at a time.

Our mandate calculator will not allow you to allocate more than 100 percentage points, or start calculating until at least 90% of the votes have been cast. This also means that it is not compulsory to allocate all 100 percentage points; for example, if the total vote share for parties is 93%, the remaining 7 percentage points are treated as having been cast for parties that did not enter parliament and are therefore lost. When typing in your picks, it is worth noting the values under the “Allocated” heading, which constantly indicate how many percentage points the user has already allocated when typing in their picks – both nationally and internationally.

Once you have entered your tips, click on the “This is my tip, calculate” button and the calculator will calculate the final result in a few moments, using the method described here (in Hungarian). Click here to start guessing!

Mandátumkalkulátor ’22

A Mandátumkalkulátor a felhasználó tippjei alapján a 2011. évi CCIII. törvényben foglalt választási szabályok szerint készít mandátumbecslést. A kalkulátor az alább részletezett megkötésekkel működik, tökéletes eredményt, mint semmilyen modell, nem adhat. Minél életszerűbb tippeket írunk be, annál pontosabb lesz a kalkulátor becslése is, de a választási rendszer egyes elemeinek (például a külhoni voksok súlyának, a kerülettérkép torzításának) megjelenítéséhez és elemzéséhez is jó eszközül szolgál.