Just make a guess, and the Parliamentary Seat Calculator tells you which party will dominate the new Hungarian parliament
The Hungarian electoral system is so complicated that many people don’t even bother trying to understand it. But we are here to help! The Parliamentary Seat Calculator by Atlatszo and think tank Political Capital shows you how many seats each party will get according to their popular support.
The electoral system surely is complex: every four years Hungarians vote for national party lists and individual local candidates in their constituencies as well. There are also Hungarian nationals outside the country’s borders who are not residents of the country – which means that they can vote on party lists but not for individual candidates. There is also a system that compensates parties for votes ‘lost’ by individual candidates.
This is why Atlatszo created the Parliamentary Seat Calculator (Mandátumkalkulátor in Hungarian). This allows readers to guess how high turnout will be and how much support each party will get, and then the Calculator will do the math and show how many seats in Parliament each party will receive.
Users can first guess how high turnout will be inside and outside the borders of Hungary as well. It is important to look at the two groups (Hungarians living in Hungary and those in neighboring countries) to get accurate results.
Then users can guess what percentage of voters will support each party. Once you set the values for each party, the Calculator will show you how many seats each party would be assigned according to your guess.
When calculating the results for the individual candidates, the Calculator takes into account data from 2014: if a party, for example, was strong in the South four years ago, the Calculator will assign more votes to that particular party in that region.
Our tool also looks at where parties have candidates and whether they have formed electoral alliances in certain constituencies. At this moment three parties have candidates in all individual constituencies: Fidesz-KDNP, Jobbiknak and LMP. MSZP-Párbeszéd and DK have a deal so they do not run against each other. Momentum has 95 candidates so far, while Együtt and MKKP have 50 each.
You can access the Parliamentary Seat Calculator here.
You can read our original story in Hungarian here, together with a detailed description of the methodology that the Calculator uses.